I Am Looking Foolish Now...But...

Smart or smart-alec? You decide.

So three weeks ago I made a bold prediction of sorts. Not based on anything scientific or Biblical or historical, just on hunches, I made a statements saying I believe that the stock markets will take a tumble --- a dramatic tumble.

Really, I was torn as to whether or not to make such a statement. But I did, and even though the markets have not done a huge tumble to this point, I don't seem to feel that I need to back down from that statement based upon what the markets have been doing as well as the unemployment and job information that has been released by the Federal and State and Local governments since the end of July.

It appears that no one at the national level or on Wall Street seems to be willing to say there's a serious economic crisis ongoing, as obvious as it is --- yet it also seems nobody wants to place confidence on the future of the American outlook based upon any "indicators" which have been placed out for public consumption and diagnosis. Frankly that says to me enough that I am unwilling to back off at this point. I still think we're about to see one of the roughest periods of American economic decline at the TOP LEVEL --- Wall Street, AMEX, NYSE, and all of the foreign markets are about to find themselves unable to control the long-term free fall of the "stock market" and the inevitible failure of the largest of the large conglomerate banks.

What can they do to stop this? Nothing. It is not something they can "fix" with another bailout. This is not something that anyone in the 21st Century can prop up with words or money that is not there. This takes a systemic failure of what the market system --- and especially those who worked in the U.S. Government who must have felt they knew what they were doing in enacting "controls" over the market systems --- which will continue over a period of weeks. Sure those controls will stop an instantaneous failure. But they won't halt the overall fall from grace that has been coming for years.

I hope you figured out that money in the mattress is a greater idea than the bankers (are you listening you poor people with money in CitiBank and the other gigantic bailed out corporations?) would have you believe. When it comes down to it, a mattress filled with hundreds or thousands of dollars will look good to some who have so much unable to be cared-for "stocks" in the market today. I hope you have a diversified portfolio --- something other than straight stocks and promises from the banks.

Keep in mind that if what I am saying does come to pass, the banks underwriters - FDIC - probably won't have enough money for the banks to stay afloat this time.

Ugly? You betcha.

How foolish we will all feel if this happens. I'd be happier to see it pass without the dramatic drop, but I keep looking at the parking lots on a Monday morning and seeing no customers parking their vehicles and then going in for a buying spree. Today, those who are in one of the "best" parts of St. Louis were not on the parking lot just before 9 am. That showed to me that I haven't lost my touch at figuring out where everyone is at any one point in time. Today they were either home saving their money, out looking for work, or if they were fortunate enough they were actually at a job making money while they can.

I Wish This Did Not Have To Be

Smart or smart-alec? You decide.


Over the past few weeks the economy has gone up and down, up and down, up and down. This isn't the usually excited rollercoaster ride on Wall Street and the other stock exchanges. This has been rather tempered, which has given the Jim Crackpotters of the world reasons to believe (in their twisted minds) that the economy will come out of recession once the November elections turn things around politically in the United States.

Great thought. A bit too late.

Between now and the November election, the following is likely:

1) The BIG stock market drop that I've been expecting for three years will begin.

It's going to be so much more than anyone expects --- I am being told today that I'm a doom-and-gloom person. That is to say that I have expected this to happen and nobody wants to see it other than me and maybe a few others who thought - as I did - that the big crash would come much sooner. Don't be alarmed if you sold off all your stock --- it's not the only thing that everyone will lose, however it will be the most dramatic. STOCKS will tumble. Sell now. Repeating...sell now. Don't wait 8 weeks. By then, the crash of the world economy will have been in full-swing.

2) The wealthiest men and women in the world will not only find their fortunes are worth MUCH less --- but many of them will have all their worldly possessions sold off to pay for those who surround them and did the majority of the work for them.

Socialist agendas are going to rule...the U.S. Government and the Federal Reserve always make equal claims that it's not going to happen or cannot happen. This time, those shouting "we're not socialists" are going to have control and socialize or overcontrol to an extreme. The extreme? Legislation will be railroaded through congress that will cause even the richest/wealthiest IN CONGRESS (Democrats and Republicans alike) to suffer terrible losses. This is before the socialists and elitests are overtaken in the November elections, just so you are clear. Can you stop this agenda any more than I can? I think not.

3) So many people will say "how did that happen?" We'll all be shaking our heads, and hundreds of millions of people will be doing THAT simultaneously...yet...some will be using the bootstraps to pull everyone out of the doldrums.

There will be some good that comes out of this GREATEST depression. Yes, this is finally the great block of global depression that everyone fears. It waited because of "controls" on markets.

THIS TIME THE CONTROLS ON THE MARKETS WILL MEAN NOTHING --- it will be nothing to see six to ten weeks of daily falls, or daily FAILURES for the "system" to stop the crash. It would not surprise me to see the 10000 mark on the Dow Industrials be more like under 600 in a matter of weeks. It'll be similar on the other stock exchanges --- nobody will be immune if you own and/or trade shares of stock. This computer keyboard will be worth more now than some of those pieces of paper will be in a few weeks. Sadly, few will heed the warning.

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Now part of the good news (if you find it to be good) is that everyone will be more on similar footing --- the failures of big banks and gigantic corporations will cause a "socialist even-out kind of situation" of sorts. It will be much more truthful to say that "we all have to get along for the sake of our fellow man" - which sounds so very progressive and socialist. But there is a good element to those who do not sympathize with a socialist agenda: Americans will be forced to be less about "me, me, me" and more about "we need to help others survive".

Sure, there are those who give to charity, who perform public service for the sheer sake of helping others, and who put their lives wholeheartedly into helping others through social service agencies. But this time it will be much more a global calling to perform these efforts. Man helping man WILL BE helping one's self, too. It will put us all in a much more spiritual mode, giving us all cause for reflection and prayer.

There's nothing stopping this fall. The elite millionaires and billionaires will not be able to buy the pieces of paper quick enough or make profits off this sell-off. And NO amount of stock market controls can stop it because the way the governments will react is to try and stop it --- with socialist legislation to be introduced --- which will simply exacerbate the whole mess.

Frankly, I'm glad to say that they'll do this, because it will prove that both conservatives don't believe it and liberals don't believe it --- but only those who can see the overall failure can see why it will be. Socialists in the government who don't see themselves as socialists will realize the devastation of the legislation too late. It will be enacted, and the crash will continue all the way to a point after the November elections, when some of the speculators will see there is no blank check big enough, no givebacks swift enough, no payouts and payoffs which can right things fast enough to make the economy turn on a dime.

By the way --- if y'all think I wanna be right, you're mistaken. I'd rather have seen the economy turn around by now without the overall pain we're about to absorb.

But it's coming.

I wish this did not have to be. But it does, and we'll see a slow turnaround after a dramatic crash. This crash will mean the wealthy folks and the poor will walk in the same lanes.

Can't Wait To See This

Smart or smart-alec? You decide.

As I start this column, I realize it has been a full six months since I wrote to this blog. In that time, the stock market/Wall Street saw prices rise back over the coveted 10-thousand mark, a day in which prices fell dramatically one afternoon without any warnings or real reasons (they're still looking into it as of this morning), and things continued on a slow up-swing there. At this point, some may be looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average to rise above 11-thousand. The Standard and Poors 500 is up more than 32 percent in the past 52 weeks. NASDAQ composite figures went up 45% over 52 weeks. These are all nice to see IF you're a stock market player and had your money placed in the right stocks.

However...

...jobless rates continued to hover around 10.0% nationally in the United States.

As I await the latest figures on new jobless claims, along with the rest of the nation and world, the pundits are telling us that the markets are flat. That's their way of saying one of two things: things aren't expected to be so rosy that the markets rise big, or, if the jobless rate doesn't rise much above 10-percent --- if it only goes up one-tenth of a percent, for example --- they don't expect a huge drop in prices today and tomorrow.

What are they awaiting? If the numbers don't drop dramatically in the short-term, they're going to be seeing 11-percent unemployment in the future --- and suddenly the stock markets will be on the decline. And it won't be good for the stockholders of American companies if the unemployment rate is at 11 vs 10-percent. But, the problems which exist and were largely created by the existence of big banks decrying that they are having to deal with unprecidented numbers of foreclosures. So, the government bails them out. And in the meantime, they continue to use their money to buy up the smaller banks which were --- UNFAIRLY --- not given any bailout money in order to keep up. Completely unfair, it is, that smaller regional banks were allowed to expire because the big boys were the only ones given a break.

I have said it before and I'll say it again: if you're going to give a bailout to the big banks, then you have to give the same kind of offer to the smaller lending institutions as well.

But, back to the unemployment part of the equation. Unemployment has already dragged down much in this econimic depression, but the markets have all but ignored that up to this point. Unfortunately, the Wall Street people patting themselves on the back because they've been able to "recover" a great deal of their losses of 100 weeks ago. This doesn't show up at street level.

Street level --- this is where the average American lives. I know it's hard to realize where street level is when you're on Wall Street, buying and selling and making commissions. And I honestly don't mean to make it sound like the floor traders can't see the street --- THEY do. But it is the CEO and CFO types who can't see from their upper-level skyscraper offices down to the place where the average person has been seeing friends not only unemployed, but struggling to survive due to their inability to pay their mortgage or put food on the table because they've gone without for such an extended period of time.

Wall Street --- keep smiling at your "success" now. You're going to drop again, and not like how it happens. This is because it will mostly likely go down slow and steady as the unemployment rate lacks improvement --- OR it will drop huge for several weeks in a row.

It's unemployment that is pulling the economy down. And the companies who were taking gains because they laid-off so many people will be taking new hits/drops because of the same thing. It's just that they are believing they are untouchables. What they fail to see is there is NO company which is going to be unscathed by the next big drop.

As it's an hour before the jobless claims rate comes out --- I'll stop and see. But I think I'll post this now before it comes out. I don't see it being a very good week. That makes me nervous. I hope the Wall Street gurus are nervous, too. They should be.